A recent study, headed by Dr. Jagpreet Chhatwal at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, proposes that hepatitis C (HCV) would be a rare disease in 22 years in the US.
According to a computer simulation conducted by the researcher, this would result from the combination of effective new drugs and early screening. By 2036 this combination would result in only having a person infected for every 1500. While now a day, the frequency of contagion is a person in every 100.
The simulation was exposed to the emergence of new antiretroviral drugs in 2011 and, more recently, to an antiviral called Sovaldi. These factors influenced the results published in the August 5 edition of the journal Annals of Internal Medicine; which under current conditions indicate that the infection would become a rare disease in the future.
“We were curious about knowing how the trend would change”, said Chhatwal. To find out, the researcher and his team used a computer model to estimate how new drugs and expanding detection would modify the burden of HCV in the United States.
The model predicts one-time HCV screening of baby boomers would help identify 487,000 cases over the next 10 years. Chhatwal said, “Though impactful, the new screening guideline does not identity the large number of HCV patients who would progress to advanced disease stages without treatment and could die.” Since, the model predicted that with new screening guidelines and therapies, HCV will only affect one in 1,500 people in the U.S. by 2036.
Correspondingly, this study predicted a one-time universal screening could identify 933,700 HCV cases. Chhatwal and his colleagues also predict the universal screening and timely treatment can make HCV a rare disease in the next 12 years. Such screening can further prevent: 161,500 liver related deaths; 13,900 liver transplants; and 96,300 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma – the most common type of liver cancer.
The route of transmission of the disease is through blood, through sexual contact and through mother to child. Symptoms of HVC may include nausea and vomiting, joint pain, malaise, dark urine and yellowing of the eyes. If left untreated, this condition can cause liver damage, liver failure and cancer.
Via: Reuters, infosalus.com
